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المستقبل الأمني للجزائر 2025

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المستقبل الأمني للجزائر 2025

المستقبل الأمني للجزائر 2025 (تحميل مجاني pdf)

بلغليفي عبد العزيز

تهدف هذه الدراسة الى وضع رؤية إستشرافية نحدد فيها المشاهد المستقبلية للأمن في الجزائر لسنة 2025 ، و بحكم موقع الجزائر الجيواستراتيجي ، تشهد تحديات أمنية عديدة خصوصا بعد الحراك الذي عرفته المنطقة و أدى الى تدهور الأوضاع الأمنية في العديد من دول الجوارمثل ليبيا و مالي مما أثر على الأوضاع الأمنية في الجزائر، و في هذ البحث حيث تطرقنا لمختلف الفواعل و القوى المؤثرة في رسم السناريوهات المستقبلية باستعمال تقنية (GBU) بوضع ثلاثة سيناريوهات مستقبلية ، سيناريو جيد و سيناريو سيئ و آخر قبيح.

فأما السيناريو الأول: الجيد تم تسميته بسيناريو الإستمرارية حيث يبقى فيه الوضع الأمني مستقر.

السيناريو الثاني: السيئ سمي بسيناريو حافة الهاوية والذي يرسم مشهد حرب الإخوة الأعداء بين الجزائر و المغرب .

السيناريو الثالث: القبيح وسمي بسيناريو الدعشنةحيث يرسم مشهد كارثي يؤدي الى الهاوية بتأزم الأوضاع الأمنية في الجنوب الجزائري.

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